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well, some says that this one is considered as “alotof stuff going on” but nvm.. enjoyh!

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happy day..

Yet another happy week incoming.. I’ve spoken to my friends regarding our trip to bandung, west java… errr… the event is now well prepared enough I think.. we’ve book the cottage, the car is considered as ready, the mood is on, hmm… another thing that really bothers me the most is about a problem that I’ve posted earlier..

“I missed you so much..” yeah i’m listening to one of my fav’s song.. Jem – Falling for you.. hmm.. and uh… the speaker comparison is rather a huge difference.. for all these years I’m only listening to laptop’s speaker.. barely can enjoy the truly sounds like.. I’m planning to bring this speaker along with its amplifier.. well… since it’s big in size and heavy, I think it’s kinda impossible for me to move it anywhere else.

I got an interview going on tomorrow at 8am.. I’m trying to get myself busy as it’ll recover my pain slowly.. err.. btw I’m applying myself as a mandarin language teacher… maybe fulltime, maybe part time, but I’m sure I’m going to extract the experience no matter the time spent.. some people said that I’m not a good teacher.. well of course.. I’ve never teaching someone before though.. maybe I’m abit surprised when someone doesn’t know a knowledge that I presumed as a common knowledge, common sense, sort of knowledge that most of the people would have know about.. etc.. and I admit I unconsciously tend to look down on that person personally.. that’s what I’m gonna fix in the near future..

Next week one of my Taiwan friend is going to married. I haven’t receive any kind of invitation yet, but last time about 2-3months ago she did told me about attending her ceremonies at the church though.. I appreciate this kind of event as a gathering purposes, it has been quite sometime since our last carita beach trip.. haha… I wonder how’s everyone going.. lots of real life stuff will be mentioned perhaps.. gossip, old jokes, funny stories.. future planning… etc…

Get rich or try dying.. yep.. 2days ago I watched a movie starred by Nicolas cage, Lord of War, astounding movie it is, and uh… it reverse our mind thoroughly, makes us think who’s the real supplier of arms in war countries and such.. well his words is kinda meaningful to me, we still can’t differentiate arms dealers with respect to those tobacco sellers/makers.. they shared the same means indeed!…

ata, iin, moren, emak, gue!! @Jco donuts

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it’s too late….

Weird feeling I have now, and since she doesn’t want me anymore, and I don’t know why all these days and few months I keep thinking about her.. I know I’ve been so mean to her… such an action that reminds me of my complete foolishness towards other human being.. I’ve made mistake and yet I do apologize to her and she said it was ok.. she said she needs a break at the moment, being single is her own preference and I can’t force her to think about our past relationship anyway.. but I do feel the pain..

Feel the pain and worries so much about her, I think it’s better don’t question about her privacy so much that time, her answer to me …sigh.. it’s just making my heart feel worse, hurt me even more.. can’t stop imagine how she do this kind of kindness to other person besides me.. some people say that ignorance is blissful.. well.. it’s better said than done.. i need to forget the past and carry on the future..

I know I’m being selfish to her.. we broke up long time ago, and I don’t have that right to ask her something private.. I don’t know why my feeling towards her doesn’t change much.. I still care about her and still wanted to be her boyfriend..

I skimmed through my past online conversation with her and realized that I’ve been blinded with stupidity and confidence.. I think it’s too late for me to fix things up.. she had her own view, her own judgement about me, and she matter religious difference the most.. her feelings towards me is now vanished along as time goes on..

once it has been broken, the scar will remains persistent.. It’s too late.. it’s too late…

叹气不已…

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Indo!

19^th June 2006, I woke up early to say astalavista to friends on the other parts of the world.. arranging / clearing the items on the mailbox up.. yeah.. some of them need to be picked up or else it will destroyed just like that.. hmm.. I looked at the window, the sun hasn’t rise that time, I packed few things with me and realized my mom’s bedcover fills up half of my luggage. There are not much empty space left to put my clothing though, however I did manage to brought the wallpapers here in one piece.. those were wrapped with my clothing btw..

I’ve been waiting the taxi about 10-15mins on the bus stop and since then everyone start looking curiously at me as I’m a foreign student with his laptop, luggage and his sleepy faces. Yeah I barely sleep yesterday night though, I kept thinking about this person somehow and those memories still can’t go off my mind. I chose to hurt her feelings and abandoned her for the past few months already.. Well, unfortunately I do really worried about her and silently asking myself everyday.. whether she’s alright…

Agnes called on my cellphone asking me where my location is and I replied to her that I’m ready to be picked up at the bus stop. That moment I recalled yesterday’s convo with one of my Singaporean friend, Jason, asking who’s gonna be traveling with me to the airport tomorrow.. I replied to him that I’ll be going with eric and agnes, and he obviously declined my invitation to go to the airport together with them.. “那..我不送了” he says..

That doesn’t matter to me, since I’m happy with all of my friends, and they’re about the same attitude towards me too! we talked trash about things going on, gossip, politics, movies etcetera on the journey, and after checked in the luggage we had a lunch in the airport’s sakae sushi.. great taste indeed.. during the flight agnes shared her experiences with me too.. it’s boring up there and we barely enough food to eat and drink.. the flight attendant only give us a snack and water to drink, nothing else, well.. don’t expect too much quality on budget airlines though.

As soon as I arrived at the airport, the condition is definitely different from what I’ve seen in Singapore.. the airport seems to be a little bit low on contrast, brightness, and empty spaces everywhere.. the janitors are there on the bench glaring at us, some of them are sleeping, and few of them really working hard it seems. Its image very much give us, the first time visitor, a hopeless attitude concerning Indonesia’s performance overall. Well I can suggest that they should put some lightning bulb here and there, hire an interior design to remake up the airport, hiring some quality officers to manage their asset, etc. and what disturb me the most is when I came out from the airport, a lot of people suddenly asking me whether I need a taxi ride or not. saying “No” is not enough. They’ll keep bugging you until you say the 3^rd or 4^th “No”. some people says ignorance is blissful.. well.. wait until you experience yourself whether you can keep your ignorance towards these people or not then 😉

I accompanied my father to check his dental problem that apparently “quite annoying” he says, and after that we had a dinner together with my parents at the southern jakarta’s famous noodle restaurant.. after I arrived at home I’m abit surprised of shi fu’s presence, saying that we will have a meditation lesson right after.. the mediation is all about the complete understanding of how natural works. It is similar like the concept of what I’ve studied earlier in sociology, saying that the universe contains 2 opposite forces and therefore the law of cause and effect exist. Eternity is impossible to attain since all kinds of form will be destroyed sooner or later. People grow old and will die, that’s an inevitable event and we must face it with a grasp of knowledge. The final purpose is for us to understand the meaning of cause and its effect, specifying on, for example; griefing.. how to getting rid of it as soon as possible, as it may affects our thinking/behaviour in the future. Buddhism doesn’t believe any form of god, as our behaviour is determined and executed by ourselves, and you can deny it if you like, and unlike other religion, you’ll not get punished if you offend it somehow. It’s not considered as an evil if you against one and I think it’s something similar like a philosophy, not really a religion IMO…

The brief explanation is of course as simple as that.. the extraction of the actual meaning is deep, and one should experience it in order to understand its teaching. Meditation forced us to concentrate, helped us to think and decide better as its effect. At first I really bored and trying to avoid meditation when the time’s come for a lesson. Although I’ve been taught to clear up my mind and concentrate, it’s rather easier said than done. 5minutes of time is like … hella long.. but after I reached the moment when my mind is clear, 5minutes is like zap.. just like that. Very fast indeed.

20^th June 2006. My mother slapped me because I stayed overnight watching “Rome” movie and sleep at 6am in the morning… the other movie story never been so clear before, and this movie is really astounding.. although it’s considered as a drama, less war event whatsoever, but I do really enjoy watching this movie.. haha..

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Test. Wiro promised to pay me 1x Arcanite Crystal for editing his banner… and.. guess what.. after i post on the forum.. he immediately save as this pic and refused to give me the crystal…

WIRO juamput!  

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New Banner! 

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Lost and Found

7 days have passed since my last CF final exam.. though I do believe I can at least pass on that subject, idk.. I just feel that I could do better than that.. however, I’m having holiday since then and it was a fine day until I realized I’ve lost my wallet.

Sunday, 12^th june 2006, 23:00pm. Valentino came back home frm work, and he asked me whether I want to go to 7-11 to buy something or not. that time I was watching TV and playing my laptop on the downstairs sofa.. so I replied him to wait for a few mins, let me clear this up first. After about 4-5mins I went upstairs to change clothes etc. I realized I lost my wallet that time. I couldn’t find it anywhere in my room, so I tried to recall it a few times. My memory saying that I put my wallet on the sofa yesterday night and maybe I forgot to notice it when I go upstairs to sleep. I told valen to check it for me on the sofa’s surroundings that time, but the search was in vain.

After that I tried to recall again what actually happened yesterday. I was thinking maybe I dropped it somewhere when I’m buying some McDonald breakfast on Saturday morning, and since that time I’m wearing a jacket, so it’s obvious that I might dropped it somewhere along the walk path to fajar shopping centre. I was freaked out and still can’t believe I’ve lost my wallet. That night was horrible.

After I calm down abit, I kept thinking that after I bought McD breakfast, that day I went to fajar shopping centre to buy dinner meal too.. and some snacks.. and I still remember the wallet is still intact that time. When I came home I still remembered to put the wallet beside me, on the sofa, because it’s a little bit inconvenient to sit with my wallet in the butt pocket. That was my last time I saw my wallet. (Saturday 11^th June 2006, around 18:00PM)

Although it’s very hard but.. I can accept the truth that I already lost the thing. Me and valen tried to search it along the walk path that night and we went to 7-11 to buy snacks, I bought $2 double cheeburger only .. (since I only have coins left..) sigh.. that night I barely can’t sleep, kept thinking about the student pass and the money inside (alot) and the consequences later, etc.. and that night I really dreamt of founding the wallet.. some more the money inside is still there… untouched.. lol….

So.. the next morning (today morning) 13^th June 2006, Monday, 11:00AM, I made a police report regarding the lost wallet, brought my passport and all relevant documents also, interviewed several occasions, and finally I got the report. The police didn’t tell me what I should do next. I just straight away went to the immigration at lavender, taking the number to queue, after waited about 2hours I spoke to the officer that I lost my another part of the student pass. The officer told me to get the SIM prove that I’m still a student of SIM and fill out the form 16.. that time I was stunned and spoke to myself.. “What the f*** I came and waited so long already for just 2 sentence of reply? God damn!” so I pissed off and leave the building immediately, heading to SIM HQ Clementi. It’s around 15:00PM afternoon.

The funny thing is, i got no wallet, and my coins left only around $2.20 or less. That time I planned to go to the nearest POSB branch to withdraw some money first so I can take a cab to SIM and surrender the documents required at the same day. While I’m waiting for the bus to arrive, SURPRISINGLY, I got a call from SIM HQ officer, asking me if I lost something earlier or not and I excitedly replied to her “YES OMFG YES!” and the officer told me the number to call the person directly. I called “Ms Linda”, the person who found my wallet earlier in the morning, and she confirmed that the student pass is still there. The 3 things that missing is my ATM card, $400cash (more), and an EZ-Link.. I immediately went downstairs to take MRT and I found out I don’t have enough money to purchase a single trip ticket to Fajar LRT station.. .. I’m little bit on anger, but still excited…

Oh yah.. I forgot to mention one thing, I did ask Ms.Linda to confirm whether the wallet is wet or not, but she said it’s not wet at all. She found out this morning in the bushes near the walk path. That time I was on the bus going to bras basah POSB branch to withdraw my money, cancel my previous and make a new ATM card. After I took the bus, I went straight to her house and she’s there explaining everything to me. where when what which who. I touched my wallet and opened it up, the picture inside is not wet, the boat ticket to batam is also not wet, and I asked her whether this morning, when she found out my wallet, the ground floor is wet or not. She replied “Yes it’s definitely wet.” And I asked her “is it possible that this wallet was dropped accidentally by me 2 days ago and it’s there for 2 nights without being wet inside?” (bearing that it has been raining these 3-4days recently). It’s absolutely nonsense. She herself saying that “maybe the person who took the wallet drops it on the bushes earlier in the morning.”

Yeah.. I have only 1 possible suspect in this case, and I don’t want to point a finger on someone or…….. *maybe* it’s just pure my fault on whether I dropped that wallet somewhere along the walk path OR I didn’t grab my wallet on the sofa upstairs that night… =sighs=

Let the past be history and since I do believe in karma (what goes around comes around), I keep thinking about my past.. did I do something bad to a person previously? Well… if I do, pls have some mercy on me.. but since my wallet has been found out by a nice person, I’m also thinking that “this must be a good deed from my previous good actions on other ppl…” hmmm.. I don’t know for sure though..

Thanks again to Ms.Linda.. you’re my saviour!! 😉

/giggle

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-Silithus- 

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Arbitrage Pricing Theory.. (APT) GoGoGo!!!! 

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Corporate Finance! Intro 1

Corporate Finance study (Compilation)

Chapter one introduced us the basic concept of Time Value of Money (TVM), says that a dollar that received today is worth more than if a dollar received tomorrow or a time later in the future. The introduction of discount rate compensates the investor from the time, effort, and opportunity cost. The interest rate itself contains 2 major factors that affect, including Market interest rate and Risk of investment. The former risk compensate investor from time (risk free), on the other hand, the latter risk compensates investor from risk taken (risk premium).

According to CAPM (capital asset pricing model), risk premium equal to (risk taken by the investor times market price of risk). Market price of risk itself is equal to market return minus risk free return. CAPM basically derived from the portfolio management model, argues that the more portfolio includes in one’s calculation, the lesser variance (idiosyncratic risk) it would contain. The symbol used to measure risk is covariance, variance and/or standard deviation (total risk approach). Any rational investor holding a diversified portfolio would like to determine the optimal level of holding a combination of Risky asset, by differentiating the variance of portfolio, we arrive to a concept of Mean Variance Analysis (the most and the best efficient / combination of risky asset), and the characteristic of portfolio will change as the portfolio weights on the assets change, depending on the correlation between the returns on the 2assets.

MVF also proves that the idiosyncratic risk can be eliminated by forming bundles of assets, as N (Number of asset) reached infinity, 1/N times variance (unsystematic risk) will approach zero, which of course left only the covariance (systematic risk), approaching to 1.

The introduction of risk-free asset enables the MVF to point out 1 tangent point to the line (Capital market line). CML therefore represents the optimal investment portfolios when risk free assets exist. Hence, any risk averse investor can construct their own optimal portfolio by combining two mutual funds, which are the tangency portfolio of risky assets and the risk free assets. This is what we called “Two-Fund Separation Theorem”.

CAPM assumed that all investors are price takers, have homogenous expectation, risk averse, rational and trying to maximize its own value. The market is assumed as a perfect market, where as there are no barriers for someone to enter / exit the market whatsoever.

Risk measurement, as a beta value is consisting the covariance of the asset itself to market return divided by variance of market return. Beta value disperse from -1 to 1, Beta value reflects the sensitivity of a security’s return relative to market’s return. Beta =1, return on security tend to move with market proportionately. Beta>1: high level of systematic risk, very sensitive to market changes (amplify its effect). Beta

CAPM measures the degree of efficiency of a security; where as SML (Security Market Line) is the tool to measure the price (pricing model). if one’s security doesn’t sit on CML line, the security itself is said to be inefficient. Whereas there are 2 conditions, if a point lying under the SML line, it is said the stock is overpriced, the market will then sell, and adjust itself until it reached the SML line. (vice versa)

However, according to Roll, there are some critics arguing that the CAPM itself is not testable. It is impossible to measure the market risk as it should include other financial asset as well as non-financial asset (labour force, real estate, etc). therefore the market portfolio itself is not observable, then CAPM is not testable – 2sub arguments, 1. we can use proxy to measure the market portfolio to determine the market risk, the real market maybe efficient but the chosen proxy may not be efficient. 2. proxy market maybe efficient but the market itself is not efficient. Conclusion, if we can’t guarantee the quality of our proxy for the market, hence we can’t place any faith in the results.

Black, Jensen and Schole’s test would indicate that the calculated CAPM tends to underestimate when the beta value is less than 1, and exaggerate its return whenever the beta is greater than 1. (lower beta securities earn higher return and higher beta securities earn lower returns than suggested by SML), another critic, saying that the systematic risk may vary accordingly (oil prices, terrorist, etc). The expose of risk to one’s security may be differing from others (the volatile oil prices may have a huge risk impact on air transportation industry compared to other risk).

APT (Arbitrage Pricing Theory)

This is the model that use so called a factor replicating portfolio. The reason to construct such factor replicating portfolios is to build a portfolio that has identical factor exposures to a given asset X. in the absence of arbitrage opportunity, all assets with identical factor exposure should earn the same return.

EMT (Efficient Market Theory)

First acknowledged by Eugene Fama, saying that a market is efficient with respect to a given set of information if no agent is able to retrieve economic profit through the use of a trading rule based on the set of information itself. Economic profit is defined as the level of return after costs adjusted appropriately for risk. Efficient theory relates to the responsiveness of market to information and not the efficiency in obtaining the information. It is concerned with the ability to make excess return based on certain information set.

There are 3 forms of market efficiency:

1. Weak form efficiency, the market price incorporates all past historical information. the price will change whenever new information comes out (announced). This form supports Random Walk Theory, therefore reject CAT (chartis analysis theory). Since the information announced is random, the price is tend to be more volatile. To make abnormal returns, one must gain unannounced anticipative information.

2. Semi strong form, the market price incorporates all past historical information and publicly anticipative information whether announced or not. the price will then tend to be more stable. To make abnormal return, you need insider information (illegal to do so). And the price will only change whenever there’s unexpected information announced.

3. strong form efficiency, market price incorporates all relevant information, whether it’s announced or not, and past historical information, including insider information (impossible to make abnormal returns). this form supports FAT (Fundamental Analysis Theory), which believes that the market will reflect the fundamental value of the firms. To maximize the wealth of the shareholders, management only need to maximize return on all investment.

To be continued.. 3:01am already..G_G

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